David Hockney Arrival of Spring Market Shift (2025–2026):

© Alex Segre / Alamy Stock Photo

1. Introduction
By Jacob Harmer: 1st April 2026
Over the past six months, the market for David Hockney’s Arrival of Spring in Woldgate has undergone a fundamental transformation. In an unprecedented event, 49 works from a single-owner collection—representing the entire standard edition series—were sold through multiple global auctions at Sotheby’s, resetting pricing, demand dynamics, and market perception.

What initially appeared to be a potential oversupply shock has instead established Arrival of Spring as one of the most successful print series of the 21st century. The consequences are far-reaching—not only for pricing, but for how collectors buy, sell, and think about the series going forward.

IN THIS ARTICLE:

1. Background: Market Development (2014–2025)
2. Network Expansion
3. The Sotheby's Sales: A Market Shock That Became a Catalyst

4. Auction vs Private Market: The Key Dynamic

5. A Core Market Fundamental: Supply is Structurally Tightening
6. Future Trends
7. Conclusion
8. Results Table
2. Background: Market Development (2014–2025)

"The Fondation Louis Vutton retrospective primed the market perfectly for the Sotheby's single owner sale"

The series was first previewed at the Royal Academy, London in 2012, ahead of its 2014 release. At the time, the iPad medium was still unproven, and while the exhibition introduced the works, it did not yet establish market confidence. A key shift came with the Museum of Contemporary Art Tokyo retrospective in 2023, where Arrival of Spring was positioned as a central part of Hockney’s late career, reinforcing its status as museum-grade work. The most important moment, however, was the Fondation Louis Vuitton exhibition in Paris in 2025.
2014: Series Commercial Release

When Arrival of Spring was first released in 2014, the works were priced at approximately £19,000 per print, each in an edition of 25 .

At the time of the 2014 commericial release, the market for Arrival of Spring in Woldgate was marked by uncertainty. Created on an iPad—still an untested medium in fine art—collectors struggled to contextualise their long-term value, and early acquisitions were driven more by emotional engagement than financial conviction. Over the following decade, a series of structural forces underpinned the market’s development. Price discovery emerged gradually, with auction results in the late 2010s first exceeding £100,000—initially seen as anomalies, but later establishing a new pricing foundation. At the same time, supply remained extremely limited, as few collectors chose to sell, reflecting a strong personal attachment to the works.
© Yui Mok / PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

3. Network Expansion

Between 2020 and 2025, the number of participants actively tracking the Arrival of Spring market increased dramatically, reflecting its transition from a relatively niche collector focus into a widely recognised and actively traded segment of the contemporary print market. This expansion was driven by rising prices, increased visibility, and growing confidence in the series’ long-term significance.

The market attracted a broad range of participants, including auction houses, dealers and galleries, advisors and wealth managers, as well as private collectors and new entrants. At the same time, coverage in the art market press played an important role in amplifying awareness, reinforcing pricing benchmarks, and bringing greater transparency to the market.
Audience: Collectors, Dealers, Galleries, Auction Houses, Public Press

"The global network following the Arrival of Spring market has grown so big that single events electrify the network and create waves of momentum"

Crucially, this growth did not just increase the number of people involved—it created a highly connected network. As a result, when a single event occurs—such as a strong auction result or notable private sale—it does not remain isolated. Instead, it is rapidly shared across this network through conversations, client updates, and informal word of mouth. Auction houses speak to advisors, advisors speak to collectors, collectors speak to peers, and dealers reinforce the narrative through their own channels. This process effectively “electrifies” the market.
© Guy Bell / Alamy Stock Photo
4. The Sotheby’s Sales: A Market Shock That Became a Catalyst
In October 2025, Sotheby’s launched the first dedicated Arrival of Spring sale in London, offering 17 works. What followed was not a normal auction—it was a market-defining event.

Key Outcomes from the First Sale (London, October 2025)
Lowest price: £152,400

Highest price: £762,000

Average: £365,312
The scale of variation (£152k → £762k) revealed something critical - demand was far stronger than expected. Subsequent global sales (New York, Singapore, Riyadh, London, Hong Kong) confirmed this trend.

Global Auction Sale Results: 6 Auctions, 49 Works

Date	Location	Lots	Lowest	Highest	Average	Variance	Total
17/10/25	London	17	£152,400	£762,000	£365,312	£609,600	£6,210,300
19/11/25	New York	8	£162,110	£574,548	£409,271	£412,438	£3,274,170
25/01/26	Singapore	3	£175,565	£234,086	£204,826	£58,522	£614,477
31/01/26	Riyadh	2	£266,787	£304,899	£285,843	£19,056	£571,686
5/3/26	London	16	£192,000	£486,400	£284,000	£202,400	£4,544,000
29/3/26	Hong Kong	3	£208,896	£270,336	£258,048	£61,440	£774,144
			£192,960	£438,712	£301,217	£227,243	£15,988,776

© ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo
5. Auction vs Private Market: The Key Dynamic
One of the most important—and often misunderstood—outcomes of these sales was the temporary dislocation between auction results and the private market.

Immediately After October 2025
Auction prices surged dramatically

Sellers anchored expectations to peak results (£500k–£700k+)

Buyers hesitated, expecting more supply and being uncertain by the price variance
Result:

The private market effectively froze. No meaningful volume of private sales occurred in the immediate aftermath. This is a crucial insight:
Auctions set headline prices

But private markets determine liquidity
“Following Sotheby’s October 2025 sale, the market entered a period of clear dislocation, with owner expectations diverging significantly from the levels buyers and auction houses were willing to commit.”

Many owners considered selling via auction. However, when engaging with auction houses, they found that estimate levels generally remained in the £100,000–£200,000 range. At the same time, seller expectations—driven by headline results—had surged to £500,000+. To proceed, owners would need to sign a consignment agreement obligating them to potentially sell close to the low estimate, often around £100,000. This created a clear mismatch between expectation and risk. As a result, many owners were unwilling to commit to auction, which explains why—outside of Sotheby’s single-owner collection—we have not seen a significant influx of supply into the auction market.
6. A Core Market Fundamental: Supply is Structurally Tightening

Regular Arrival of Spring Series:

- 49 images

- Edition of 25 each

- 1,225 works in total

Every time a work sells, the new owner usually pays a higher price than the previous owner, as it is rare owners accept losses. Key principle being, with every transaction, the average acquisition price rises—and supply of well-priced works declines. This is not theoretical—it is already happening. The best opportunities remain with owners who acquired the works at primary release, although these are becoming increasingly difficult to source. These owners benefit from a significant pricing cushion—assuming appropriate insurance—meaning the likelihood of a realised loss is extremely low, as even conservative auction estimates exceed their original purchase price.
© Malcolm Park / Alamy Stock Photo
Rebalancing → Early 2026
Over time:
Sellers reduced expectations

Buyers regained confidence as price variance began to drop
Eventually, a new private market equilibrium emerged with prices broadly falling into the below with a couple of outliers;
Pre-sale private market: £150k–£250k

Post-sale equilibrium: ~£200k–£350k

Seller aspirations clustering: ~£350k
This is the clearest evidence of a true structural price shift.
© ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo

7. Future Trends

7.1 Supply Contraction
The sale of all 49 Arrival of Spring works was a one-off event unlikely to be repeated. The only other complete set we are aware of is held by a public museum, making a future sale improbable. As a result, we expect auction supply to revert to typical pre-October 2025 levels.

7.2 Cyclical Market Dynamics
The market has reset above previous levels, with Arrival of Spring now the most sought-after of all Hockney iPad works. Over the past six months, we estimate that 5–10% of the series has been resold across auction and private markets at higher prices. Prior to October 2025, £180,000–£220,000 was considered fair value; today, that range is increasingly seen as bargain territory.
7.3 Substitution Effect

"Historically we have seen the trend, as the price of Arrival of Spring works rise and some collectors get priced out the market, there is a increase in demand for Yosemite and My Normandy series"

Historically, we have observed a strong correlation between the different Hockney iPad series. While Arrival of Springestablished itself as the most in-demand series many years ago, rising prices have increasingly pushed some collectors to look elsewhere. This has primarily benefited the Yosemite series, and more recently My Normandy. Both series have smaller bodies of work than Arrival of Spring, and in particular, Yosemite has become increasingly difficult to source in recent years. Since October 2025, we have not yet seen a significant surge in demand or pricing across these series. However, given the pricing shift in Arrival of Spring, we believe a delayed response is likely, with increased demand and upward pressure on prices expected in the near term.
8. Conclusion
The events of the past six months have fundamentally reshaped the Arrival of Spring market. What began as a perceived risk—an unprecedented release of supply—has instead proven the depth, resilience, and global demand for the series. The market has absorbed a significant proportion of total supply at materially higher price levels, establishing a new pricing framework and expanding the network of engaged participants.

With the single-owner collection now fully dispersed, the market enters a new phase defined by reduced supply, heightened awareness, and stronger price anchoring. The conditions that allowed buyers to wait for opportunity—namely excess supply and uncertainty—have now largely passed.

Looking forward, the key dynamics are clear:
- Supply is expected to contract back to historically normal levels
- The network of informed participants is larger and more responsive than ever
- Pricing is likely to evolve in cycles, but from a structurally higher base
In this environment, well-priced works are likely to become increasingly difficult to source, particularly as ownership consolidates at higher acquisition levels. Ultimately, Arrival of Spring has crossed an important threshold. It is no longer an emerging segment of the Hockney market—it is now firmly established as a leading body of work within it, and one of the most significant print series of the 21st century.
VIEW ALL AUCTION RESULTS
1 COMPLETE SET - 49 REGULAR WORKS - 6 GLOBAL SALES - 100% SELL THROUGH RATE © Charlie J Ercilla / Alamy Stock Photo

David Hockney Arrival of Spring Sotheby’s Auction Results

Title	Ed. / Medium / Size	Sale Date	Location & Currency	Seller	Low Estimate*	High Estimate*	Hammer Price	Price Incl. BP	Notes
11th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $163,764	£180,000 $245,646	£220,000 $300,234	£279,400 $381,297
17th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $109,176	£120,000 $163,764	£330,000 $450,351	£419,100 $572,491
3rd January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $163,764	£180,000 $245,646	£200,000 $272,940	£254,000 $346,633
15th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $136,470	£150,000 $204,705	£170,000 $231,999	£215,900 $294,638
2nd June 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $163,764	£180,000 $245,646	£500,000 $682,350	£635,000 $866,584	3rd highest result
4th January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $136,470	£150,000 $204,705	£240,000 $327,528	£304,800 $415,960
28th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $163,764	£180,000 $245,646	£550,000 $750,585	£698,500 $953,242	2nd highest result
4th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $163,764	£180,000 $245,646	£260,000 $354,822	£330,200 $450,623
16th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $136,470	£150,000 $204,705	£260,000 $354,822	£330,200 $450,623
30th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $109,176	£120,000 $163,764	£150,000 $204,705	£190,500 $259,975
12th April No.2 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $136,470	£150,000 $204,705	£160,000 $218,352	£203,200 $277,307
24th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $109,176	£120,000 $163,764	£120,000 $163,764	£152,400 $207,980
27th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $109,176	£120,000 $163,764	£320,000 $436,704	£406,400 $554,614
12th April No.1 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $136,470	£150,000 $204,705	£190,000 $259,293	£241,300 $329,302
19th February 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $163,764	£180,000 $245,646	£600,000 $818,820	£762,000 $1,039,901	Auction record
1st January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $163,764	£180,000 $245,646	£300,000 $409,410	£381,000 $519,950
22nd March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	October 17th, 2025	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $109,176	£120,000 $163,764	£320,000 $436,704	£406,400 $554,614
14th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$150,000 £112,545	$200,000 £150,060	£247,599 $330,000	£314,451 $419,100
29th January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$150,000 £112,545	$200,000 £150,060	£315,126 $420,000	£400,210 $533,400
30th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$120,000 £90,036	$180,000 £135,054	£240,096 $320,000	£304,922 $406,400
8th January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$120,000 £90,036	$180,000 £135,054	£360,144 $480,000	£457,383 $609,600
19th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$100,000 £75,030	$150,000 £112,545	£450,180 $600,000	£571,729 $762,000
25th February 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$100,000 £75,030	$150,000 £112,545	£127,551 $170,000	£161,990 $215,900
25th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$100,000 £75,030	$150,000 £112,545	£450,180 $600,000	£571,729 $762,000
12th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	November 19th, 2025	New York (USD)	Sotheby's New York	$120,000 £90,036	$180,000 £135,054	£375,150 $500,000	£476,441 $635,000
13th January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	January 25th, 2026	Singapore (SGD)	Sotheby's Singapore	£128,257 $174,083	£180,673 $245,227	£183,601 $244,723	£234,086 $312,013
19th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	January 25th, 2026	Singapore (SGD)	Sotheby's Singapore	£81,594 $110,747	£122,391 $166,121	£137,160 $182,820	£175,565 $234,010
23rd February 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	January 25th, 2026	Singapore (SGD)	Sotheby's Singapore	£79,635 $108,088	£122,391 $166,121	£160,020 $213,290	£204,826 $273,012
5th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	January 31st, 2026	Riyadh (USD)	Sotheby's Riyadh	$100,000 £75,024	$150,000 £112,536	£208,427 $277,812	£266,787 $355,600
19th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	January 31st, 2026	Riyadh (USD)	Sotheby's Riyadh	$150,000 £112,536	$200,000 £150,048	£238,202 $317,500	£304,899 $406,400
14th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $135,730	£150,000 $203,595	£280,000 $380,044	£358,400 $486,456
31st May No. 1	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $162,876	£180,000 $244,314	£350,000 $475,055	£448,000 $608,070
26th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $108,584	£120,000 $162,876	£220,000 $298,606	£281,600 $382,216
2nd January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£120,000 $162,876	£180,000 $244,314	£220,000 $298,606	£281,600 $382,216
6th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $108,584	£120,000 $162,876	£380,000 $515,774	£486,400 $660,191
31st May No. 2	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $135,730	£150,000 $203,595	£250,000 $339,325	£320,000 $434,336
14th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $135,730	£150,000 $203,595	£190,000 $257,887	£243,200 $330,095
18th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $108,584	£120,000 $162,876	£180,000 $244,314	£230,400 $312,722
23rd April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $108,584	£120,000 $162,876	£180,000 $244,314	£230,400 $312,722
30th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $135,730	£150,000 $203,595	£180,000 $244,314	£230,400 $312,722
18th January 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $135,730	£150,000 $203,595	£170,000 $230,741	£217,600 $295,348
25th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $135,730	£150,000 $203,595	£220,000 $298,606	£281,600 $382,216
1st April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£100,000 $135,730	£150,000 $203,595	£180,000 $244,314	£230,400 $312,722
22nd May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $108,584	£120,000 $162,876	£150,000 $203,595	£192,000 $260,602
21st March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $108,584	£120,000 $162,876	£210,000 $285,033	£268,800 $364,842
5th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 5th, 2026	London (GBP)	Sotheby's London	£80,000 $108,584	£120,000 $162,876	£190,000 $257,887	£243,200 $330,095
18th March 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 29th, 2026	Hong Kong (HKD)	Sotheby's Hong Kong	£75,414 $102,359	£113,121 $153,539	£207,402 $281,507	£265,476 $360,330
17th April 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 29th, 2026	Hong Kong (HKD)	Sotheby's Hong Kong	£94,267 $127,948	£141,401 $191,923	£226,258 $307,100	£289,610 $393,088
16th May 2011	Edition Size: 25 Medium: iPad Drawing Size: 55" x 41.5"	March 29th, 2026	Hong Kong (HKD)	Sotheby's Hong Kong	£113,121 $153,539	£169,681 $230,308	£160,266 $217,529	£205,140 $278,437

Disclaimer

This article has been prepared by Geist Holdings Ltd for informational and editorial purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and should not be relied upon as a basis for making any investment or commercial decision. All data, pricing references, and market observations contained within this article are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, including auction results, private market transactions, and internal records. However, Geist Holdings Ltd makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of this information. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Currency conversions, where applicable, have been calculated using exchange rates published by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) at the relevant time. Fluctuations in exchange rates may materially affect reported values. The art market is inherently illiquid and subjective. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that any artwork will achieve similar prices in the future. Values may fluctuate significantly based on market conditions, provenance, condition, timing of sale, and other factors outside of Geist Holdings Ltd’s control. This article may reference private sales and estimates that are not publicly verifiable. Such information is provided for contextual purposes only and should not be interpreted as definitive market evidence. Geist Holdings Ltd, its directors, employees, and affiliates may from time to time hold, buy, or sell artworks referenced in this article, and may have a financial interest in the markets discussed.